 Quinnipiac Election 2016 National Presidential Survey:
Survey of 1,419 registered voters. The survey was conducted on May 22, 2013 - May 28, 2013. The margin of error is +/- 2.6%. Election 2014 can be a good year for Republicans if we play our cards correctly. The United States Senate will be the most vulnerable. This is great for Republicans and terrible for the Democrats. There are 33 Senate seats up for reelection. Two seats are up for election in special elections. These Senate seats are in Hawaii and South Carolina. Including the special election Senate seats, 21 Senate seats are in the Democrats hands and 14 Senate seats are in Republican hands. 6 Democrats and 2 Republicans have announced they are retiring and not seeking reelection. In my view Alaska, Montana, South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Michigan, Arkansas, Louisiana, North Carolina, West Virginia, and New Hampshire are the swing seats. The election might be over a year away, but we have to think about it now. We must figure out who is the best Republican to run in the Democratic controlled Senate seat elections. I am just going to pick a few Senate seats and give my prediction. First I want to talk about Alaska. Joe Miller who ran for the Republican party in 2010 filed his paperwork to run for a second time in Alaska for Senate. I believe he will unseat incumbent Democrat Mark Begich. Montana, with Democratic Senator Maucus not running for reelection, I see it going into Republican hands. The only problem Republicans run into is if the former Democratic Governor of Montana Brian Schweitzer decides to run. I also predict South Dakota will be going into Republican hands. Democratic Senator Johnson is not running for reelection, and with no clear strong candidate from the democrats I don’t expect them to win that seat. This situation is also evident in Iowa. Democratic Senator Harkin is not running for reelection. It will be a bit of a challenge for Republicans to win, but I think they can do it, since the incumbent is not running for reelection. Finally I want to talk about New Hampshire. Republicans can win that state if former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown runs for that seat. If he does not I see little chance for Republicans to win there. Other states I see going into Republican hands would be Louisiana, Arkansas, West Virginia, and North Carolina. I predict 53 seats will be in the Republican control and 47 seats will be in Democrats control. Anything can happen in the next years and a half, but this is just my early prediction.  Joe Miller filed his papers in order to be a Republican candidate for the Alaska Senate race in 2014. Currently the Senate seat is being held by Democrat, Mark Begich. His Senate seat is considered a toss up in the upcoming election. Joe Miller the tea party backed Republican beat incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski in the Republican primary in 2010 elections. Lisa Murkowski went on to run as a write in candidate and ended up winning. |
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