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Out of the long list of potential 2016 GOP candidates there is only three I can confidently say will run for President. They are New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul and Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal. All three of these candidates also represent the different wings of the Republican Party. Christie comes from the moderate establishment part of the party, Rand Paul represents many of the Libertarian views and Jindal is the Conservative. These three guys have made many visits to the early primary states. They also have given the best insights on whether or not they will run for President. Based on everything they are doing they will defiantly run in 2016. Now of course we are not going to have just three Republicans run for President. Wikipedia gives a list of forty four potential candidates. There will defiantly not be forty four candidates running in the Republican Primary. Besides the three I named above the other top names mentioned are:
I don't see Jeb Bush running for President. Many say he is the Republican Party's best shot at taking back the White House. If George W. Bush left office more popular I think he would run. Yes George W. Bush's popularity is on the rise but for Democrats that won't matter. The Bush family name will also be an attack word for the Democrats. I also think the American people had enough of the same two family's running the country. By that I mean the Bush family and Clinton family. America probably had enough of the Bush last name and I think Jeb Bush knows that. If you would like to see another Bush President I would watch out for Jeb Bush's son George P. Bush.
I think there is a good chance that Ben Carson will run in 2016. He has become very popular among conservatives. In recent weeks he has made some movement with starting up his own PAC. The "Run Ben Run" draft movement has also picked up a lot of steam. It raised more money than the "Ready for Hillary" draft movement did. He also is known for selling more books than Hillary Clinton did with her most recent book release. As for Ben Carson winning the GOP nomination no one can tell. All we can base his chances off is past election. We have had past candidates run with no political experience such as Herman Cain in 2012, Steve Forbes in 1996 and 2000, and Pat Buchanan who ran in 1992, 1996 and 2000. Obviously none of these won the nomination.
People always mention Ted Cruz as a possible candidate but I don't know why. He was just elected to the US Senate in 2012. Before that he held office at the state level in Texas. If he was too run he would be in the Senate the same amount of time Obama was in the Senate before he became President. Yes Ted Cruz would be a better President, but that's not to say he has not spent enough time in the Senate. I do not see Cruz running for President in 2016. I certainly see him running for President in the future.
He was a 2008 Presidential candidate who got his campaign rolling by winning the Iowa caucus. Overall he came in third place in 2008. Huckabee turned down running for President in 2012 and since his loss in 2008 he has had his own Fox News show and made tons of money from it. If he was to run for President he would have to stop his show. I can't see Huckabee doing that. I think Huckabee is very happy with what he is doing now and running for President in 2016 will turn everything upside down.
In 2012 he was encouraged to run but decided against running for President. Instead he deiced to run for Governor of Indiana. Before being Governor he was a Congressman. For the past few months Pence has been hinting at a White House run. His wife is also in favor for a run for President in 2016. The only problem I see for Pence is that he is up for reelection for Governor in 2016. If he was to run for President all his time and energy would be invested in that and not in a campaign for reelection for Governor. As a result he could potentially loose his reelection campaign. If he runs for President and looses in the primary he still would have enough time to transition from his Presidential campaign to a Gubernatorial campaign. Yes candidates have ran for President/Vice President and won that office as well as their current political office. An example of that is Joe Biden. He was elected Vice President but also won his Delaware Senate election that same day. Its a bug risk to do that. Mike Pence also might have a major challenger for his Governor seat. Former two term Indiana Governor and Senator Evan Bayh had been rumored to be thinking about running for Governor of Indiana again. If that was the case Pence would have no choice but to not run for President and focus all his time on a tough reelection campaign for Governor.
Perry was one of the 2012 Presidential front runners. After a few bad debate moments his campaign fizzled out. He has said that he is interested in running for President in 2016. Recently Rick Perry became very vocal over immigration and has been challenging Obama on the issue. He deiced not to run for a forth term as Governor which many see as a move to allow him to focus all his time on a Presidential campaign. He just started his own PAC and has made tons of visits to the primary states. On paper Perry has one of the best records out of any of the Governors in the country. I defiantly can see Perry running again.
In 2012 Rubio was seen as a potential Vice Presidential candidate. Now for 2016 he is seen as a Presidential candidate. Coming right out of the 2012 Presidential election Rubio was the clear front runner for the Republican nomination. After a failed immigration plan backed by Rubio which was not in conservatives favor the Rubio buzz kind of died off. As for Rubio running in 2016, he kind of has a similar situation as Pence. Rubio's Senate seat is up for reelection in 2016. According to state law in Florida a candidate can't be on the ballot for two offices. So if Rubio was to run for President and win the Republican nomination he would have to drop out of his reelection campaign for Senate because Florida state law prevents you from being on the ballot twice. It's also the same problem if Rubio was to be a Vice Presidential candidate in 2016. The law could be changed like it was in Kentucky to allow Rand Paul run for President and run for reelection in 2016. Right now there is no sign that the law will be changed. Rubio will have to decide if he wants to be President or to keep his Senate seat. I think he will keep his Senate seat.
Paul Ryan was Mitt Romney's Vice Presidential candidate. Being a Vice Presidential candidate right off the bat makes you a possible Presidential candidate for the following election. Ryan has expressed interest in running but really has not made any major moves with a possible Presidential campaign. The most recent move he made was announcing that he will be doing a book tour this month for his new book "The Way Forward." Book tours are always seen as one of the first steps taken to run for President. People close to him have said that its rather unlikely for Ryan to run for President in 2016. I think it's basically an even chance on whether or not Ryan will run for President.
Santorum came in second place in 2012. He campaign was pretty much going nowhere until he barley won the Iowa Caucus. Usually the second place man always runs for President the following Presidential election. I think there is a good chance Santorum will run again. Polling shows that Santorum is not starting off where he left off in 2012. Instead it is showing where he began in 2012, which is in the low single digits.
Scott Walker became famous for his union busting polices in Wisconsin which I disagree with. Only recently has he been named as a possible candidate in 2016. When it comes to Scott Walker we really should forget about a 2016 candidacy since there is a chance he could lose reelection this November. He is in a tight heated reelection campaign which polling shows is pretty much a tie. If he looses reelection you can say goodbye to a Presidential campaign by Scott Walker. And lets not forget the wildcard former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. Most are completely writing off Mitt Romney as a candidate in 2016. Even Mitt Romney is writing himself off. The one thing we must know is when it comes to politics the word "no" means nothing. Mitt Romney has recently been getting more involved in politics. He has been campaigning for candidates and endorsing candidates. He has went on talk shows to give his opinion on issues and has been very vocal against the Obama administration. People are writing him off because the think most of the guys listed above are going to run for President. I think a lot of guys that are expected to run or are rumored to run won't run which will leave a gap open for Mitt Romney to jump in.  Senator Rand Paul was elected to the United States Senate in the state of Kentucky in 2010. Rand Paul is the son of former Texas Congressman and 2008, 2012 Republican Presidential Candidate Ron Paul. Senator Paul established himself as an outspoken Washington outsider. He does not go with the flow of Washington and puts up a fight for what he believes in. Like his father he established himself as one who stands up for liberty and the true meaning of the Constitution. He closely resembles the ideas that his father represented throughout his congressional career. Rand Paul has been considering a run for President in 2016 and is very likely to run for President. The question is not whether he will run or not, the question is if he was to run would he win the nomination. Right now he is leading the 2016 RCP GOP Primary. Leading right now in the early polls really means nothing. Just ask Rudy Giuliani. Being such an outspoken man in the Republican Party he has made a lot of enemies within the establishment of the Republican Party. Making enemies within the Party can only hurt you. Especially those who control the money flow and outreach in the Republican Party. This can make his path to victory very difficult. I want to be clear being outspoken is not the problem. I admire those who are outspoken, but being such an outspoken person can hurt his chances in 2016. If we look at the past elections the establishment member of the party is the one that takes the nomination. So if we look at the establishment members of the 2016 field: Mike Huckabee, Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Paul Ryan, Marco Rubio, and Bobby Jindal. That's not to say these are all the establishment members, just those who are put in majority of the polls.
The Clinton's on the other hand have a similar amount of wealth. Since leaving the White House Bill Clinton has made over 100 million just from giving speeches around the country. They were not considered out of touch. No one said anything about their wealth until recently when Hillary Clinton made a ridiculous comment about how they were broke when they left the White House. The double standard is very clear. We have Mitt Romney, a wealthy businessman who worked his way up the corporate ladder making tons of money working hard. According to the media and varies liberals this makes Mitt Romney out of touch. Then we have the Clinton's. A powerful political family who made all of their wealth from giving speech's and writing books. So in all reality who are the real ones that are out of touch.  Hillary Clinton has zero accomplishments that would allow her to be President. Her performance as a carpetbagger Senator was mediocre, her tenure as Secretary of State was awful, and please don't get me started with her being First Lady. Besides the fact that being First Lady does not qualify you to be President or any elected official for that matter. Lets not forget she is not unbeatable. She lost in a primary to an inexperienced Illinois Senator who spent more time campaigning for President than actually serving in the Senate. Right now all the polls are based off of name recognition. If we use the polls right now to predict the 2016 Presidential election than we should have President John McCain right now since at this point in time for the 2008 election McCain was beating Obama. In fact he was beating Obama by 2 points in New York. Hillary Clinton is being pushed by the Democrats because she is their only hope. They don't have a young charismatic teleprompter candidate like Obama in 2008. They have no one besides Hillary that can have a shot at winning the Presidency in 2016.
I want to take a look at the last ten Presidents and show what office they held before they became President. 44. Barack Obama (D) - Illinois Senator 43. George W. Bush (R) - Texas Governor 42. Bill Clinton (D) - Arkansas Governor 41. George H.W. Bush (R) - Ronald Reagan VP 40. Ronald Reagan (R) - California Governor 39. Jimmy Carter (D) - Georgia Governor 38. Gerald Ford (R) - Richard Nixon VP 37. Richard Nixon (R) - Dwight D. Eisenhower VP 36. Lyndon Johnson (D) - John F. Kennedy VP 35. John F. Kennedy (D) - Massachusetts Senator First off I want to say the reason why I only go back to the last ten Presidents is because American politics as we know was very different before Kennedy became President. If you look at the list, four out of the ten Presidents were Governors before they became President. Four out of ten were Vice Presidents before they became President, and only two were Senators. So what does this tell us about 2016. Well since Republican's don't have an incumbent Vice President and there is no former Vice President out there that will run for President we can cross that off the list. Now we are left with Senators, Representatives, and Governors. The only two Presidents in history that were a representative before they became President were James Garfield and Abraham Lincoln. So the chances of a Representative becoming the Republican nominee or even the President in 2016 is very slim. As for Senators, they have a really good chance of getting the Republican nomination but a less of a chance to become President simply based off the trend. So chances are the Republican nominee in 2016 will probably be a Governor. People tend to be more comfortable electing Governors to the White House because the job description for being a Governor and a President is very similar. They are both executives but Governor are just on a smaller scale. An interesting article released on February 5, 2014 by The Feehery Theory talks about how if Governor Chris Christie decides not to run, Congressman Peter King of New York or Senator Rob Portman of Ohio could fill his spot. You can read more from that article here. Chris Christie was seen as the 2016 Republican Presidential front runner, but after the bridge scandal he has completely lost ground with the party and the country. The base that Chris Christie attracted to get elected to the New Jersey Governorship, and put him on the map for 2016 is pretty much the same base that would help Peter King and or Rob Portman. Congressman Peter King has tons of experience. He's been a Congressman since 1993, and was the Chairman of the United States House Committee on Homeland Security. King believes in a strong nation security, which did help Bush win the Presidency in 2000 and in 2004. He is a straight talker Conservative, that attracts the blue collar workers, Reagan Democrats, and Reagan Conservatives. He is without a doubt a force to be reckoned with if he does indeed decide to run for President in 2016. Rob Portman also has a lot of experience to be President. He was a Congressman from 1993 - 2005, he was the 13th United States Trade Representative under President George W. Bush from 2005 - 2006. Also he was the 35th Director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Bush from 2006 - 2007, and in 2010 he was elected to the US Senate. Rob Portman would also attract the blue collar workers which helped win a land slide victory for the Senate in 2010. When you run for President you need a base. Without a strong foundation your just going to fall. Blue collar workers are a strong base to have. Their the hard working Americans that keep the economy rolling.  For the first time in a very long time the Republican Party does not have a clear front runner for the 2016 Republican Presidential primaries. In 2012 we had many front runners before we got back to nominating Mitt Romney. This situation is happening again for the 2016 primary and the primary season didn't even start yet. We had a taste of Marco Rubio, he was leading most of the early primary polls with a pretty large lead, but he faded out right after the immigration reform plan collapsed. Once Rubio lost the front runner position Chris Christie, Rand Paul and Ted Cruz pretty much were fighting it out, with one candidate leading the other by a point or two. Once Christie was reelected by a very large margin, it seemed that Christie would emerge as that early primary favorite, which sometimes works out and other times does not. (You can ask George W. Bush about how it feels to be the early favorite and win, and you can ask Rudy Giuliani on how it feels to be the early favorite and lose.) Right when we were about to give Christie the early front runner status the bridge scandal came out. Since then Christie is beginning to fade out. So now the GOP is left with no clear front runner. According to the latest polls its pretty much a tie depending on the poll between Paul Ryan, Jeb Bush, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz and Mike Huckabee when he is in the polls. Christie is still polling close or a little higher than the names listed above, but I expect his numbers to drop a little more over the next few weeks. With no clear frontrunner in the race, this gives a big opportunity for sleeper candidates to rise to the occasion. The sleeper candidates could be Ohio Governor John Kasich, Congressman Peter King, New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez (Declined to run for President, but so does most people), and Nevada Governor Brian Sandoval. All these potential candidates have very strong records and a lot of qualifications to be President. Throughout the whole 2016 Republican primary we are going to probably have a bunch of front runners just like 2o12. The only difference is we wont have an inevitable front runner like Mitt Romney.  I certainly don't see Joe Biden as a competitive contender in the 2016 Presidential election at all. Yes he does come in a distant second to Hillary Clinton in 2016 Democratic polls, and he does lead the 2016 Democratic Presidential field if Hillary Clinton does not run. This is only only because other than Hillary and Joe Biden no other potential candidate has really any name recognition or a national campaign capability. The big question is will Joe Biden run for President in 2016. He already ran twice, in 1988 and 2008. 2016 would be his third try. If you look at the trends of a Vice President running for President the trend shows it happens very often. Now I am going to post a list Presidents from FDR and up and say whether or not they ran for President and won or lost.  First off I don't find it a surprise that the media is making a bigger deal over the New Jersey Bridge then lets say the IRS, Benghazi, NSA scandals and Obamacare. Don't get me wrong, what happened in New Jersey was awful and Governor Christie did do the right thing by firing all those who were involved. But come on, we have seen much worse scandals in the last year and the national media has been silent. If you would like to know what happened with this scandal you can click here. An interesting survey released by Rasmussen shows if Chris Christie did in fact know about the scandal before it happened, 56% beleive Christie should resign as Governor. 29% say no he should stay as Governor and 15% are not sure. As for Chris Christie's potential Presidential run 39% said they are less likely to vote for Christie for President because of the scandal. 14% said they are more likely to vote for Christie for President and 39% said it will not make an impact on their vote. The survey was asked to New Jersey voters. Personally I think this scandal will fade out within a month or so. I don't really see this being a major issue in a Christie Presidential run. There are so many more major scandals and issues then this one. |
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