Marco Rubio- 34%
Sample Size: 2,746
Margin of Error: +/-1.87%
Poll Conducted: December 19, 2012
Break Down of Poll Numbers-Harper Polling:
Rubio is strongest in the South and West. There’s some logic in that. He’s a son of the South, for those who count Florida as the South. The Hispanic appeal may run a bit stronger out West. In the Northeast, he and Christie run virtually tied at 29-27%. The Midwest may ultimately be the harder nut to crack for Rubio. His working class background may be his strongest connection to the industrial Midwest.
The Chris Christie primary voter appears to lean more toward the middle. Along with Condi Rice, his voters are more likely to support exceptions to the no-new-taxes pledge and they believe that compromise is better for the country. They are less likely to watch Fox News and support TEA party goals.
Speaking of the TEA party. It is the foundation of Rubio’s support. Approaching half of all TEA supporters (43%) are voting for him. If I’m one of the other guys, it can’t stay that way. Somebody has to eat away at that base for Rubio.
Rice and Scott Brown are the only candidates who do better among women than men. We threw Brown in the mix to see if his historic 2011 special election victory had any bite with GOP primary voters.